• Tinubu applauds INEC, Yilwatda, says APC victory good omen
• PDP’s decline deepens as Makinde holds Oyo, APGA rebounds in Anambra
• Kwankwasiyya faces hurdles, INEC battles distrust in Zamfara, Enugu
Despite widespread public anger over economic hardship and insecurity, Saturday’s by-elections across 12 states have reinforced the dominance of the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC), which clinched 12 of 16 seats, exposing the deepening decline of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and the fragility of other opposition platforms.
The polls, organised by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), were held in 16 senatorial, federal and state constituencies.
Some political leaders saw them as a test of the influence of frontline platforms, including the ruling All Progressives Congress, the embattled main opposition Peoples Democratic Party, and the New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP).
Confusion and leadership disputes in the Labour Party (LP), as well as the new wave coalition of opposition politicians under the African Democratic Congress (ADC), marred their participation. The LP also complained of intimidation, vote-buying and manipulation of the process.
Despite the subdued complaints, President Tinubu congratulated all the winners, describing the exercise as another milestone in Nigeria’s democratic consolidation.
The President said INEC conducted what could be considered a “largely hitch-free polls,” devoid of violence and irregularities, insisting that the outcome reflected the will of the people.
Describing the results as a good omen for APC under its new National Chairman, Prof Nentawe Yilwatda, President Tinubu declared: “By this emphatic first electoral triumph, Chairman Nentawe Yilwatda has shown leadership capacity and demonstrated what is achievable when popular candidates are fielded and when unity of purpose guides party leaders.
“To all APC faithful and the electorate, thank you for the confidence reposed in our party. Be assured that our Renewed Hope slogan is not just a catchphrase. Our destination is a better, more secure, and more prosperous Nigeria, and by the Grace of God, we shall take you there.”
In the general outline of the results, while the ruling party swept the majority of constituencies and consolidated its national spread, its main rival, PDP, suffered setbacks, securing only one major victory in Oyo State.
For the All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA), which faces a re-election battle in November, it was a sweet victory. In contrast, Rabiu Kwankwaso’s NNPP struggled to retain relevance in Kano, while the ADC failed to deliver any upsets despite its pre-election billing.
The overall picture reflects a deepening dominance of APC, an opposition in disarray, and faint stirrings of regional players positioning themselves as spoilers or coalition brokers in battles to come.
The APC extended its dominance across the North and South. From Jigawa to Ogun, Edo to Adamawa, the party showcased its superior political machinery, outspending, out-mobilising and outmanoeuvring its rivals.
In Edo State, APC’s Omosede Igbinedion secured the Ovia Federal Constituency seat with a landslide, while Joseph Ikpea triumphed in Edo Central Senatorial District, signalling that the party is gaining ground in a state long considered a PDP stronghold.
In the South-West, APC maintained supremacy with Adesola Ayoola Elegbeji winning the Ikenne–Sagamu–Remo North Federal Constituency in Ogun, while PDP managed a breakthrough only in Oyo.
In Jigawa and Niger, the party crushed the opposition, while in Kogi, Taraba and Adamawa, APC candidates eked out narrow wins that highlighted both the party’s organisational strength and the weaknesses of its rivals.
The broader implication is clear: despite mounting anger over subsidy removal, inflation and rising insecurity, President Bola Tinubu and the ruling APC retain political dominance at the grassroots, suggesting that incumbency and structure still outweigh public disaffection in Nigeria’s electoral politics.
For Tinubu, these wins are not just symbolic. They will translate into legislative strength, as APC expands its caucuses in both the House of Representatives and state assemblies, reinforcing the President’s grip on the National Assembly and bolstering his bargaining power ahead of 2027.
PDP’s decline deepens as Makinde holds Oyo, APGA rebounds in Anambra
For PDP, the story was one of continued decline. Out of 16 available seats, the party captured just one: the Ibadan North Federal Constituency, where Folajimi Oyekunle (DoN) defeated APC’s Adewale Olatunji.
However, the success recorded by PDP in Oyo underlined the political supremacy of Governor Seyi Makinde over the opposition APC in the state; an indication that the incumbent governor may break the jinx of producing his successor in 2027 if APC continues in its present state of crisis.
While the Oyo victory gave Governor Makinde something to celebrate, it highlighted a stark reality: PDP’s influence is shrinking rapidly outside the South-South and parts of the South-West.
In Edo, where PDP once held sway, the party was routed. In Jigawa and Niger, it could not mount credible resistance. In Taraba and Adamawa, both once PDP strongholds, the party faltered.
The defeats reflect deeper internal problems. PDP is currently embroiled in a bitter leadership tussle over the national secretary position. Without a clear strategy, the party risks being reduced to a regional force rather than a national contender in 2027.
One of the more remarkable outcomes of the by-elections came from Anambra State, where APGA clinched two victories: Emmanuel Nwachukwu won the Anambra South Senatorial District with a commanding 90,408 votes, while Ifeoma Azikiwe took the Onitsha North 1 State Constituency.
These wins are crucial for Governor Chukwuma Soludo, who has been seeking to revive APGA’s relevance in the South-East since the party’s decline after 2019.
For years, APGA has struggled to assert itself as more than a regional outfit. But its latest victories suggest that the party still commands loyalty in Anambra and could serve as a bargaining chip in national coalition talks for 2027. Soludo, often touted as a potential presidential aspirant, now has a platform to negotiate either alliances or a stronger independent showing for APGA.
Kwankwasiyya faces hurdles as INEC battles distrust in Zamfara, Enugu
In Kano, the NNPP won the Bagwai/Shanono State Assembly seat, with Ali Alhassan polling 16,198 votes against APC’s 5,347. However, APC snatched the Ghari/Tsanyawa Assembly seat from NNPP, marking a partial setback for Rabiu Kwankwaso’s movement.
This mixed result reflects the fragile hold of the Kwankwasiyya movement in Kano. While Kwankwaso remains a towering figure, the NNPP is struggling to translate his influence into consistent electoral victories.
The win nevertheless ensures the NNPP remains relevant in Kano politics, denying APC full dominance and giving Kwankwaso a foothold to negotiate alliances in 2027.
In Zamfara, the by-election was declared inconclusive after APC led with 7,001 votes against PDP’s 5,339, but the margin was smaller than the number of cancelled votes. The situation underscores both electoral fragility and persistent insecurity in the North-West.
In Enugu South Urban, the election failed for the fourth time, further eroding public trust in INEC in the South-East. Separatist tensions, security fears and low turnout continue to haunt elections in the region.
Both cases highlight the challenges of Nigeria’s democracy beyond party competition: logistical weaknesses, insecurity and voter apathy.
Meanwhile, INEC’s Resident Electoral Commissioner (REC) in Enugu, Dr Chukwuemeka Chukwu, called for restraint. He appealed to stakeholders to allow the election to be held, while expressing surprise at the size of the turnout.
“I honestly do not know why this place is even this crowded; it is not supposed to be so. Therefore, I am pleading with all stakeholders in Enugu State; let us not create problems in this election,” the REC stated.
Defence minister denies losing polling unit to PDP
Minister of Defence and former Jigawa State governor, Mohammed Badaru Abubakar, has, however, debunked reports that he lost his polling unit to PDP.
He gave the clarification in a statement by his Media Aide, Mati Ali, yesterday, saying the result trending on social media was false and misleading.
He remarked that, in their desperation, mischief makers linked him to Polling Unit 001, whereas his actual polling unit is 002.
Earlier results had shown APC lost at Polling Unit 001, located in the same primary school, and it was wrongly tagged as the polling booth where the minister voted.
The minister said he voted at Polling Unit 002 at Babura Kofar Arewa Primary School, where APC polled 188 votes and PDP polled 164.
The statement reads: “Our attention has been drawn to the circulation of an election result from Babura Kofar Arewa Polling Unit 001, mischievously attributed to the Honourable Minister of Defence, His Excellency Mohammed Badaru Abubakar.
“We wish to categorically state that the report is nothing but the handiwork of mischief makers seeking to distort facts and tarnish the good image of the Honourable Minister.
“For the avoidance of doubt, the Honourable Minister’s actual polling unit is Babura Kofar Arewa Primary School Polling Unit 002, where His Excellency personally cast his vote.”
INEC later declared APC candidate Mukhtar Rabiu winner of the Garki/Babura federal constituency by-election.
According to the Returning Officer, Prof Isma’il Ibrahim, who announced the results after collation, the APC candidate polled 38,449 votes, PDP’s Isah Auwalu Manzo got 13,519, while NNPP’s Sabo Salisu had 2,931.
ADC alleges collusion, intimidation, says democracy at risk
Raising objections to the outcome of the polls, the ADC alleged intimidation, exclusion, and collusion between security forces and compromised election officials, warning that Nigerians and the international community must brace themselves.
In a similar vein, the ADC called on the international community, especially Nigeria’s democratic partners and election observers, not to look away, stressing: “Silence in the face of such brazen subversion of democratic norms will only embolden those who profit from this chaos. Nigeria is too important to Africa and the world to allow its democracy to collapse under the weight of complicit impunity.
“We urge civil society, the media, faith leaders, and indeed every Nigerian who believes in freedom to resist the slide into electoral banditry. If we do not defend the sanctity of the ballot today, there may be nothing left to defend tomorrow.
“The ADC notes the recent declaration of both the PDP and the APC as terrorist organisations by a Canadian court. This must have come as a great embarrassment to all citizens. But evidence of this by-election makes it difficult to plead their case.”
Also in Oyo, ADC candidate Dr Oluwafemi Dexter Akin-Alamu raised the alarm over alleged vote buying in some polling units and wards.
Akin-Alamu made the claim while speaking with journalists shortly after he voted at Unit 038, Ward 11, inside the University of Ibadan (UI). He said he had been informed that massive vote buying was ongoing in some areas. The ADC candidate noted that the practice was possible due to the high level of poverty in the country.
“There is vote buying that is going on; it is not an allegation. There is vote buying that is going on in Wards 1 to 4. I have the report of what is going on in Wards 7, 8 and 12. So they are not allegations. It is something that is going on. It is a wholesale thing. It is as a result of the fact that they are giving people money due to the level of poverty,” he said.
Analysts: APC’s gains expose PDP’s weak grassroots connection
The outcome of the by-elections sparked political debate and reflection, especially in Adamawa and Taraba.
Speaking with The Guardian, some political analysts described APC’s win in Taraba’s Karim 1 constituency as a wake-up call for PDP ahead of the 2027 general elections.
“The APC’s victory, small as it may appear, is a loud warning for the PDP,” said one analyst. “It shows that politics is no longer about assumed loyalty; it’s about groundwork, strategy, and connecting with the people.”
Analysts pointed out that APC’s triumph was not accidental, but the result of consistent mobilisation and capitalising on PDP’s internal weaknesses and overconfidence.
They warned that unless PDP urgently restructures, reconciles internal divisions, and reconnects with its grassroots base, APC may continue gaining ground in regions previously considered safe for the opposition.
“Karim 1 should not be viewed as just a bye-election,” another observer noted. “It’s a mirror reflecting the mood of the electorate. Voter loyalty is no longer guaranteed. If the PDP truly wants to stay relevant, it must act — and fast.”
With these by-election victories, APC, as observed by The Guardian, has not only strengthened its legislative presence in Adamawa and Taraba but also sent a clear message ahead of the 2027 electoral cycle: no political territory is untouchable.
NNPP rejects APC’s allegations of violence in Kano elections
Following claims that the election was rigged in Kano for NNPP, the party condemned calls for the cancellation of the Shanono/Bagwai by-election and the re-run in Ghari constituencies of Kano State, describing such demands as baseless and misleading.
The party insisted that the elections were free, fair, credible and peaceful, with its candidates winning overwhelmingly as declared by INEC.
NNPP also applauded the people of Kano State, INEC and security agencies for ensuring a credible voting exercise during the by-election and re-run.
In a statement by its National Publicity Secretary, Ladipo Johnson, the NNPP said the claim by APC National Publicity Secretary, Felix Morka, alleging violence during the polls, was frivolous and not supported by facts on the ground.
