Dangote Petroleum Refinery’s operational outlook for the first half of 2026 remains uncertain, as persistent challenges with its Residual Fluid Catalytic Cracking (RFCC) unit continue to cap crude processing rates and constrain gasoline output, a new report has said.
The forecast is contained in a report titled “Dangote H1 2026 Outlook: RFCC challenges keep runs capped and ramp-up uneven”, published on Thursday by Kpler, a global energy analytics firm.
According to the report, the restart of the refinery’s 200,000 barrels-per-day RFCC unit has been pushed to 10 February and could face further delays, following repeated outages since April last year.
“Dangote’s operation outlook remains uncertain as the RFCC restart has been pushed to 10 February and could slip further. The 200 kbd RFCC remains the key bottleneck, keeping runs capped after repeated outages since April 2025,” the report said.
RFCC is an advanced refining process that converts heavy, low-value distillation residues into higher-value light products such as gasoline, diesel, and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG).
By utilising a specialised zeolite catalyst at high temperatures, the process upgrades “bottom of the barrel” crude components, improving refinery margins and maximising product yields from heavier oil feeds.
Kpler said the RFCC is a critical conversion unit and remains the main bottleneck preventing the Dangote refinery from achieving a stable ramp-up.
Shutdown rumours, refinery response
The report comes less than three weeks after several media reports and social media posts alleged that the Dangote refinery had shut down operations, a claim the company has since denied.
“Reports suggesting a shutdown are false and misleading. Nigerians are advised to disregard unverified claims and rely on credible information,” the refinery stated on 5 January while refuting the allegation.
It said Dangote Petroleum Refinery remains committed to steady supply, price stability, and Nigeria’s energy security.
“Production remains ongoing, stable, and uninterrupted. The refinery continues to supply 40–50 million litres of PMS daily through January and February, subject to market demand,” it said.
On 4 January, the refinery said it produced 50 million litres of premium motor spirit (PMS) and evacuated 48 million litres, with existing stocks sufficient to cover over 20 days of national consumption.
“Routine maintenance on select units does not affect overall output,” the refinery stated at the time, adding that PMS, diesel, and Jet A-1 production continues through fully operational processing units.
Supply commitments amid regulatory controversy
Amid controversy over petroleum importation licences and monopoly concerns involving the President and Chief Executive of the Dangote Group, Aliko Dangote, and the leadership of the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA), the refinery on 30 November last year restated its commitment to meeting domestic PMS demand.
“Dangote refinery is ready and able to supply 1.5 bin litres of PMS per month (50mln litres/day) in December and January followed by 1.7 bln litres per month (57mln litres/day) from February 2026 onwards,” the refinery stated.
It also sought the presence of NMDPRA officials onsite from 1 December 2025 to validate its output figures and promised to publish daily supply volumes.
Shortfall risk looms
Kpler estimates that crude runs in January averaged between 280,000 and 300,000 barrels per day (kbd) and are expected to remain around 300,000–320,000 kbd into February, well below the refinery’s nameplate capacity.
“Overall stabilisation remains months away, and RFCC reliability risks should keep the gasoline ramp-up constrained into H1 2026,” the report said.
Meanwhile, market sources and analytics cited in the report pointed to ongoing technical issues within the RFCC work scope, raising the risk of further delays given the complexity and reliability sensitivity of such units.
The report hinted that a short one-week maintenance on the Crude Distillation Unit (CDU) of the refinery is also expected in early February, adding to near-term operational uncertainty.
Despite the RFCC downtime, the refinery has continued producing gasoline through other processing units, including the Continuous Catalytic Reformer (CCR) and isomerisation units. However, this has been supplemented by a sharp rise in gasoline imports and blending components.
Kpler estimates that Dangote’s gasoline imports surged to about 45 kbd in January, helping to sustain supply even as internal conversion capacity remained constrained.
Crude imports into the refinery slowed materially in January, while exports of low-sulphur straight-run (LSSR) products increased in frequency, averaging about 120 kbd month-to-date. Based on Kpler’s refinery model, January production is estimated at 95 kbd of gasoline and nearly 120 kbd of middle distillates.
To mitigate the impact of RFCC unavailability, the refinery has shifted towards a lighter crude slate, with average API gravity in the range of 37–39 since the fourth quarter of 2025. Kpler said the strategy is intended to preserve feed availability for CDU-linked secondary units and reduce disruption risks to gasoline and middle distillate output.
Outlook remains fragile
Looking ahead, Kpler expects refinery runs to hover around 300,000–320,000 kbd into February, with its base case assuming RFCC ramp-up begins from the third week of the month.
READ ALSO: Dangote Refinery’s domestic petrol supply rose sharply in December – NMDPRA
This, it said, would translate to average crude runs of about 350 kbd in the first quarter of 2026 and around 400 kbd in the first half of the year.
Under this scenario, Kpler said gasoline production is projected to average about 120 kbd in the first quarter of 2026 and rise to around 150 kbd over the first half of the year. However, the report warned that downside risks remain high, given the refinery’s operating record over the past year.
“Refinery stabilisation is still likely months away, as RFCC reliability remains the key swing factor,” Kpler said, adding that extended ramp-up periods of 24 to 36 months are common for mega-refineries globally.
The report noted that Dangote Refinery appears to be following a familiar pattern seen at other large refinery start-ups, where delays in normalising critical conversion units often prevent sustained ramp-ups in the early years of operation.
