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Analyst warns of low 2027 election turnout without reform

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Public affairs analyst and lawyer, Maxwell Opara, has issued a stark warning over Nigeria’s 2027 general elections, predicting a sharp drop in voter turnout unless urgent electoral reforms are enacted.

Speaking on Arise TV, Opara criticised the current state of Nigeria’s Electoral Act and Constitution, describing them as legacies of military rule that continue to hinder democratic progress. He argued that without a comprehensive overhaul, including constitutional review and enforceable electoral laws, public confidence in the electoral system will continue to erode.

“If we go into the 2027 election with the present Electoral Act as it stands, we are still going to face the same problems,” he said. “I assure you, 80 to 90 per cent of Nigerians, including myself, will not come out to waste time voting.”

Opara took issue with a recent Supreme Court ruling which, he claimed, effectively made it non-mandatory for the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) to adhere to its electoral guidelines. He said this legal ambiguity undermines accountability and transparency in the electoral process.

“The INEC chairman is talking about rules guiding the 2027 election, but the court has said it’s not mandatory to follow them. So why should citizens have confidence in the process?” he asked.

A cornerstone of Opara’s argument is the call for a constitutional amendment that would mandate real-time electronic transmission of election results. He believes this would be a significant step toward eliminating electoral fraud and restoring public trust.

“If we can fortify those sections of the Constitution that deal with elections, we’ll be able to vote out criminals and bring in credible leaders,” he said. “That can only happen when the law compels INEC to transmit results from polling units in real time.”

Opara also addressed the unresolved issue of local government autonomy. He acknowledged the Supreme Court’s recent judgment in favour of local government independence but lamented the federal government’s lack of political will to implement it. According to him, the President is hesitating due to fears of political backlash from state governors ahead of the 2027 vote.

“There’s no reason why the Central Bank of Nigeria should still be releasing funds to state governors instead of local governments,” he said. “It’s all about 2027 politics.”

He further advocated for the creation of new states, particularly in the Southeast, arguing that the region has long been politically marginalised.

He concluded by saying that without bold structural changes, Nigeria’s next general election may see record levels of apathy and disillusionment.

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