Chelsea are favourites to progress from Saturday’s FIFA Club World Cup tie against Benfica. The Blues are expected to win inside 90 minutes in 45.1percent of the latest 10,000 simulations. Chelsea have won all of their previous meetings with Benfica in all competitions.
Benfica haven’t beaten English opposition since March 2014. Benfica upset the odds somewhat to top Group C ahead of Bayern Munich.
The theory is that topping your group earns you a more straightforward draw in the first knockout round, but instead of meeting Flamengo in a tie they’d have likely been favourites for, they’ll be the outsiders against Enzo Maresca’s Chelsea at the Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte.
Of course, Benfica will fancy their chances of causing something of an upset, just as they did on Tuesday when battling to a resilient 1-0 win over Bayern in the same stadium.
Their record against English opposition is poor, though. Benfica last beat Premier League opposition in March 2014 when earning a 3-1 win over Tottenham, going winless in seven such games since (D3 L4).
And although Chelsea did lose to Flamengo in the group stage, hence their progress as section runners-up, the Blues are generally on a good run of form.
Since enduring a run of just three wins in 12 games between December 22 and February 22, (D3 L6), Chelsea have won 16 of 22 in all competitions (D2 L4), scoring 38 goals and keeping 12 clean sheets .
And, for what it’s worth, Chelsea haven’t lost to Benfica. They beat them home and away in the 2011-12 UEFA Champions League quarter-finals, before also winning 2-1 in the 2013 UEFA Europa League final. Granted, all three were quite a long time ago.
Meanwhile, Lionel Messi will lead a quartet of former Barcelona players into a meeting with their former coach Luis Enrique when Inter Miami face European champions PSG in the last 16 of the FIFA Club World Cup in Atlanta on Sunday.
Messi, Jordi Alba, Sergio Busquets and Luis Suarez all played under Luis Enrique in Spain, and were in the side who knocked PSG out of the Champions League last 16 in the 2016-17 season.
Miami qualified for the last 16 of the Club World Cup as Group A runners-up with a 2-2 draw against Palmeiras on Monday. PSG have certainly moved on from their traumatic Champions League exit in 2017, when they won the first leg in Paris 4-0 but were thrashed 6-1 in the return match in Barcelona.
The French side claimed their first Champions League title this season in a campaign masterminded by Luis Enrique, but Messi and Co will be eager to cause another upset.
Suarez showed that at 38-year-old he still has the game to score on the big stage, notching Miami’s second in their draw with Palmeiras. Ahead Sunday’s tie, Miami coach Javier Mascherano said: “They are probably better than us, but in football you never know. Maybe Sunday will be our day.”
Miami forward Suarez said: “If we make these mistakes against PSG we will pay a heavy price. Obviously, in this kind of tournament there is always going to be a favourite, that’s just a fact. We’ll be facing the European champions and we will have to try and take our chances.
“Luis Enrique has seen many players and he influenced me a lot. I already had a competitive DNA but he made me even more competitive.”
